Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
