🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Senkaku islands and military drones near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its ships carried out a “rights enforcement patrol” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the latest activity come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go particularly close to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.