A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
